Every profitable bettor has a process. Here's mine, refined over the past year.
Step 1: Morning Scan (15 min)
I check upcoming fixtures for the day across my focus leagues: - Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A - NBA (when in season) - UFC cards
I use Flashscore for fixture lists and basic stats.
Step 2: Filter (10 min)
I eliminate games where: - Both teams are mid-table with nothing to play for - Key data is missing (new manager, too many unknowns) - Odds are already very sharp (big matches like El Clasico)
Usually 15 games become 4-5 candidates.
Step 3: Deep Research (30-45 min)
For each candidate game: 1. Team form — last 5 results, goals scored/conceded 2. Head-to-head — last 5 meetings between these teams 3. Injuries/suspensions — check official team news 4. Motivation — what's at stake for each team? 5. Home/away splits — some teams are completely different at home vs away 6. Expected goals (xG) — are results matching performance?
I spend about 8-10 minutes per game.
Step 4: Odds Comparison (5 min)
I compare odds across 3-4 bookmakers. I'm looking for the best price for my selection. Even 0.10 difference in odds matters over hundreds of bets.
Step 5: Stake Decision (2 min)
Based on confidence level: - High confidence: 3% of bankroll - Medium: 2% of bankroll - Speculative: 1% of bankroll
Most bets are 2%.
Step 6: Record and Monitor
Every bet goes in my spreadsheet: - Date, league, teams, bet type, odds, stake, result - Running P/L, ROI by league, ROI by bet type
This data tells me what's working and what's not.
Total Time: About 1 Hour
That's it. 1 hour of research produces 2-4 bets. Some days I find nothing and place zero bets. That's fine — no value = no bet.